This excerpt is from a report that is available to subscribers of Stratas Advisors’ Europe, Global LNG and Global Natural Gas services.
LNG exporters are showing renewed interest in European consumers as recent developments have made the market more attractive than it has been in many years.
In the short-term, tenders released by producers across the globe—in addition to the restart of production in Angola—have driven down prices in premium Asian markets, from $9.50/MMBtu for February deliveries to $8.25/MMBtu for March deliveries.
The tenders have come from historically Asia-focused suppliers, namely Indonesia, Australia and the UAE. Prices of close to $10/MM Btu were a two-year high for the region that saw a precipitous decline in the price following the 2014 collapse in oil.
Conversely, a colder-than-usual winter has prompted greater LNG demand in Europe. Pipeline issues in France have stimulated the need for additional LNG imports into the country’s southern portions, where the Fos-Tonkin and Fos-Cavaou terminals are set to receive shipments.
While attention has turned to Europe in the short-term, comments from Gazprom’s leadership in Russia have indicated that the continent could be the setting for a turf war during the Trump administration. The president-elect has made it clear through statements and the nominations of former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson to his cabinet that energy policy will be front-and-center in his administration.
While there are currently five operational or under-construction liquefaction terminals in the continental U.S., there has been speculation that Perry’s appointment will serve to streamline the regulatory system for other proposals as they progress through the DOE and FERC approval process.
With increasing scrutiny on emissions as put in place by COP21 and Emissions Control Areas in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere, it remains likely that European gas imports will remain stagnant or even decline, leaving the U.S. and Russia to fight for a piece of a shrinking pie.
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