OPEC meets on 15 March. What can we expect? The analysts at Barclays Capital, led by Paul Horsnell, say, "Global fundamental balances argue for no further change in output policy, but the lack of sustained upwards momentum in prices presents the case for ratcheting up the already considerable supply-side pressure." Meanwhile, I think it appears that oil has finally found its floor, trading between $40 and $45 for a few weeks now. Wish natural gas would do the same. The next question is, how long before oil rallies in a sustainable way? That depends on world economies--but I just heard this week that in February, China's exports fell 26% year-on-year, so don't look for much of a global oil demand recovery any time soon. The latest EIA projections have reduced non-OPEC supply growth expectations to almost zero and also cut OPEC NGLs growth expectations. "Our view remains that the key dynamic over the next few years will be a sharp fall in non-OPEC supply, so severe as to shock the more complacent current consensus of a fairly flat profile," Barclays says. That last sentence really caught my eye, since oil exploration success is not over yet. There have been some wondrous discoveries unveiled lately--Petrobras' Tupi find and others offshore Brazil take the prize. Then there is the big Jubilee find offshore Ghana as announced recently by partners Tullow Oil, Anadarko Petroleum and Kosmos Energy. Also worth mentioning is Anadarko's Shenandoah find in the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, the oil rig count in the U.S. should fall by nearly 50% in 2009, according to models from the analysts at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. The oil rig count would then increase 13% in 2010 and another 5% in 2011 and 2012 when oil prices recover, they say. --Leslie Haines, Editor-in-chief, Oil and Gas Investor, lhaines@hartenergy.com
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