According to research firm Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook for the corporate sector, a 37% drop in spend across the sector will be needed relative to 2014 to maintain current debt levels if Brent remains at $60 per barrel in 2015. This is in addition to the $9 billion in cuts announced by companies in the last few weeks.
“Operators in an intensive development phase have the least optionality to respond,” said Fraser McKay, principal analyst for Wood Mackenzie’s corporate analysis. “Most other International Oil Companies (IOCs) have flexibility to rein in spend to keep finances on an even keel. But shareholder dividends and distributions are likely to be a significant part of the spend cuts for some companies.”
Falling oil prices are also checking the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market: As deals underway are being shelved, would-be buyers are melting away. Those looking to sell will not get the offers they would have a few months ago. According to Wood Mackenzie, M&A will not recover until a new “consensus” emerges, likely at least three to six months from the point that prices stabilize. Currently, however, uncertainty and corporate distress create opportunities for companies with the appetite and capacity to take advantage, according to the firm. Luke Parker, principal analyst for Wood Mackenzie’s M&A analysis said, “Weak oil prices through 2015 will ratchet up the pressure on the most financially stretched in the sector. Expect to see falling deal valuations and the emergence of a true buyers’ market.”
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