Russia’s oil output may decline next year due to a global reduction pact, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Dec. 18, possibly halting an uninterrupted decade-long run of growth.

OPEC and other large oil producers led by Russia agreed this month to resume cutting output as oil prices have plunged to less than $60 from more than $80 per barrel in October in a blow to many oil producing countries’ coffers.

Russia has pledged to cut its production by 228,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) from a record-high monthly average of 11.41 million bbl/d.

Novak said this reduction will be achieved during the first quarter as production has exceeded 11.42 million bbl/d in December so far.

Novak, speaking at a committee of the ruling United Russia party at the lower house of parliament, said Russian oil production is set to rise this year by around 200,000 bbl/d to 556 million tonnes.

Russia’s oil production has been on an uninterrupted upward trend, thanks to new oil fields coming onstream, after 2008 when it declined amid a world-wide financial crisis and plunging oil prices.

Novak said that the base case scenario for production next year is 555-556 million tonnes.

“This could be adjusted, taking into account the reduction (deal), I think by 3-4 million tonnes to the downside. But a lot will depend on what further action we will take,” he told reporters.

“It is hard to give a precise forecast; there are lots of uncertainties today.”

Global oil prices have shed more than 30% since early October due to swelling global inventories and slowing global economic growth.

Novak said this month’s deal has prevented a deeper decline in prices.

“We are seeing the effect [from the deal] now. The prices did not fall to a very low level, which they could have reached had it not been for the deal,” Novak said.