The collapse in oil prices may deter investment in E&P projects predicated on $100 crude, United Arab Emirates’ Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said.
“What worries us is that some investors will not continue to invest,” Al Mazrouei told reporters Nov. 11 in Abu Dhabi. “Not us, others, are not going to continue to invest. And in a few years, we’re going to face difficulties finding enough investments in the market.”
Oil has fallen into a bear market this year on increased output of U.S. shale and other supplies. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, including the U.A.E., will meet Nov. 27 to assess the market and production. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have resisted calls for the group to cut output, while Libya, Venezuela and Ecuador have asked for action to keep prices from falling lower. Brent crude has tumbled 29% since June 19.
“This isn’t the first time that we see a drop in the market,” Al Mazrouei said. “If this is a phenomenon that’s going to last, it will affect some future investment, especially in the more expensive oil developments. If this is a short fluctuation, we’re not going to be panicking. And we never panic.”
Many companies made investment decisions over the past three or four years on the premise that crude would sell at $100 a barrel, Al Mazrouei said.
Risky Projects
“There is a concern, but the long-term investors will continue investing in those large projects,” he said. “Some who are producing at a higher oil-price assumption, they will suffer.”
The oversupply of oil “didn’t come from us,” Al Mazrouei said of the U.A.E. and OPEC, which provides about 40% of the world’s oil. “We kept the market balanced. So we need to wait to see. Now OPEC members are meeting to discuss.”
The group exceeded its official target of 30 MMbbl/d by 974,000 bbl/d in October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“No single country can give you an indication of the result” of OPEC’s decision before it meets this month in Vienna. “We’ve been wise in much more difficult times than this. Let’s wait for that meeting,” Al Mazrouei said.
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