Average field production increased by over 1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) or nearly 10 Bcf this week according to Bloomberg scrapes. We see a sharp decrease in demand across major categories by about 7.4 Bcf/d. Canadian imports fell by 0.4 Bcf/d and Mexico exports rose by 0.1 Bcf/d for the report week. 

Our analysis leads us to expect a 10 Bcf storage build to be reported by EIA on April 4, which will be the last report for the withdrawal season that ended March 31. This is in contrast to the 34 Bcf withdrawal that was the five-year average. The current consensus whisper expectation tells that analysts have a mixed opinion with few values in withdrawal and few values in build.

The EIA reported a 36 Bcf withdrawal last week with inventory levels ending at 1,107 Bcf. We expect the winter March exit that will be reported this week is likely to be above 1,100 Bcf as well. There appears to be no effect on Henry Hub natural gas prices with levels staying stable.

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