NEW YORK ─ Just four days after its exploration plan for Alaska’s Chukchi Sea was approved by federal authorities, Shell Oil president Marvin Odum reiterated the firm’s commitment to the play, despite the vast complexities, risks and expenses. He also said that the onshore shale plays where Shell operates can compete favorably with other plays in its portfolio.
So far Shell has spent about $6 billion on its Chukchi asset, Odum said during his keynote address to the FT Energy Strategies Summit on May 14. “But the size of the prize is absolutely worth it.” Department of Interior approval was conditional on the company securing further federal and state drilling and environmental permits.
Reiterating an idea that has become a familiar theme in the industry, that every shale play is different, Odum said, “You cannot put the Arctic in one basket. There is huge variation. You can’t look at what others have done and are doing and compare that to what we are doing. We are moving on this today because of our lease holding. We have by far the leading holding on the real structure in the Chukchi.”
That assertion, Odum said, is based on new seismic and other intelligence, along with the reinterpretation of existing data.
Shifting gears, but not themes, Odum reiterated that the concept of “go big or go home” applies just as much to onshore unconventional development as it does to the offshore Arctic. The rhetorical question he asked himself: Could a company the size of Shell prosper in shale? He said yes, in specific plays.
“If you look at North America, we have taken some dramatic moves in the past six years,” said Odum. “We have built up a vast inventory. That accelerated two years to 18 months ago; then last year we sold about $3 billion of North American assets.” He added with a smile that those transactions took place before the price of oil tumbled, but he could not take credit for market timing.
“Now we are focused on three assets: the Permian, western Canada and the Utica Shale. They are large enough to matter to a company the size of Shell. We only want to be in the best positions in the best plays.”
More broadly, Odum examined a question even more important that the price of oil: the break-even price for any development. “It could be $60 a barrel or it could be $80. And I mean break-even on a net-present-value, cost-of-capital basis. The question becomes at what price of oil do you go back in? At current levels, for some plays, we are starting to see that now.”
Quickly Odum noted that did not mean a big ramp back up in capex. Quite to the contrary. “The first question is how much appraisal drilling do you want to do? We have that and we stick it in our back pocket. Having a long list of things that you want to do when prices improve is a good thing to be doing right now.”
At a more granular level Odum added that the production company does not get too hung up on every tick in the price of oil. “We go through our price decks and evaluations every month on every project. Should we proceed or defer? There is no doubt that North American shale can compete in a global portfolio like ours.”
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