LONDON—OPEC+ compliance with oil production cuts rose to 136% in February from 129% in January, two sources said, missing its target by over 1 MMbbl/d, as an already tight oil market braces for major Russian disruption.

The International Energy Agency, which predicted the oil market was set for a 700,000 bbl/d supply deficit in the second quarter from potential Russian disruption, assessed that OPEC+ was producing 1.1 million bbl/d below target last month. 

The IEA said oil markets could lose 3 million bbl/d of Russian oil from April amid Western sanctions on Moscow and buyer reluctance to purchase Russian crude.

Several major consuming nations, including the United States, have called on OPEC+ to raise its output at a faster rate to help calm oil prices which soared to 14-year highs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

So far OPEC+, which groups OPEC and its allies including Russia, has resisted calls for additional supplies.

Only a handful of OPEC+ countries have the capacity to raise output in a meaningful way, namely Gulf producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The UAE caused confusion earlier this month when its ambassador to Washington Yousuf Al Otaiba said that Abu Dhabi favored an increase in output and would encourage OPEC to consider one.

But Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said his country was committed to the OPEC+ agreement on monthly oil production and has not agreed to individually increase production outside that framework.

OPEC+ has been hiking output by 400,000 bbl/d each month since August as it unwinds cuts made when the pandemic slashed demand.

It still has 2.6 million bbl/d of cuts it expects to unwind by the end of September.