There are two ways of looking at energy investments in 2015, a top executive at GDF Suez said at a recent forum at Rice University in Houston: the old and the new.
The dual strategy of the Paris-based multinational, in the process of changing its name to Engie, is to focus on services in mature markets like the U.S. and Europe, and to invest in infrastructure in emerging markets, Zin Smati, president and CEO of GDF Suez North America Inc., said at the “North America in Global Energy Markets: Infrastructure and Integration” conference.
The global nature of his company offers a unique perspective, Smati said.
“We see things that are happening in North America maybe a little bit ahead of other people because we can see what the behavior of customers is, what they want and what they’re looking for,” he said.
GDF Suez has its corporate eye on several trends and how they will impact the important North American market as well as global trade flows. Long term, the continent’s growing population will feed growing demand for energy and other resources. Short term, the impact is from shale gas.
“The expectation is that shale gas is going to be 45% of U.S. gas supply in the future,” Smati said. “Expect demand to go up. When you look at CO2 and global warming, the amount of CO2 in Europe is actually going up; in the United States it’s actually going down without trying very hard, which is thanks to shale gas.”
Smati sees North American gas creating a $300 billion investment opportunity over the next two decades in terms of creating systems for putting it to use. This includes power generation—replacing nuclear and coal-fired plants—and as transportation fuel. But gas is not alone on the investment horizon. Solar has started to make a huge impact as well.
“Let me put it in context for you,” he said. “If you build a gas-fired power plant and gas is $5 [mmBtu], the cost of gas alone is almost the same as the price of power coming from a large solar power plant today. It is amazing. That cost is coming down in a massive way and having a huge impact. When you look at the penetration of solar, it is huge.”
The movement toward solar will ultimately cut into demand, and therefore price, for natural gas. GDF is already adjusting its strategy for LNG in the U.S., turning away from construction of massive liquefaction facilities, like those on the Gulf Coast, toward smaller facilities in the middle of the country.
The key, Smati said, is to position the company for growth in the LNG fuel market for trucking and shipping, as well as growth in the consumption of CNG.
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com.
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