Hydrogen, along with solar and nuclear, could replace coal, oil and natural gas as the world’s dominant sources of energy, according to a longtime energy insider known for his straightforward insight.

But it likely won’t happen until the 22nd century, said John Hofmeister, CEO of Citizens for Affordable Energy and former president of Shell Americas.

“Guess what? Zero CO2 and other particulates. Yeah, we’ll still have to deal with uranium waste, radioactive uranium waste, but we can reduce that worry by shifting away from uranium as the source of nuclear to thorium, which is much safer to work with over time,” Hofmeister said during a recently-held virtual energy forum by JLL and Gensler.

The discussion took place amid increasing focus on ESG concerns and a shift toward cleaner sources of energy. While oil, gas and coal remain the dominant power sources, attention is turning to alternative energy—including the simplest and lightest element on the periodic table—as many target smaller carbon footprints.

“Hydrogen is the most available molecule in the earth, and we’re learning better and better how to capture it, how to transport it, how to manage it safely,” Hofmeister said. “And I think it will be a great source of energy as we go through this century.”

Hydrogen as an alternative fuel source is not a novel concept. NASA has used hydrogen gas as rocket fuel to carry crew and cargo to space for decades. It’s most commonly used today as a feedstock.

However, there are efforts underway to increase its usage across different sectors, given its potential use, abundance and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.

BP Plc has teamed up with Ørsted AS to build wind-powered technology to produce hydrogen from water at the Lingen refinery in Germany, the energy majors said Nov. 10.

Traditional oilfield service companies are also making moves on the hydrogen technology front. Baker Hughes Co., working with partner Snam SpA, successfully tested the world’s first hydrogen blend turbine—called NovaLT12—for gas networks.

Hydrogen could also play a role in reducing the demand for gasoline in the U.S., according to Hofmeister.

“I think it’s a combination of batteries and hydrogen fuel cells which will power the public in the next couple of decades because, again, technology and climate and costs,” he said. “I think the price will continue to be more and more attractive for both battery, electric and for hydrogen fuel cell. … In the end, we will use batteries for as long as they are available (lithium is a finite resource) and convenient and affordable, and we will also use hydrogen.”

But it won’t be until the 22nd century when “hydrogen will be a primary energy source for mobility,” he said.

Asked why not sooner, he referred to the Hindenburg disaster in 1937. Kept afloat by highly flammable hydrogen, the German zeppelin—which resembles a large blimp—caught fire, killing more than 30 people in New Jersey.

“Also, hydrogen has some economic issues,” Hofmeister said. “Where does it come from? Does it come from natural gas? Does it come from biomass? Does it come from water? The electrolysis of hydrogen remains an energy-intense process by which we would get that hydrogen if we get it from water.”

He noted the economics are still troubling for many as well as the cost of the fuel cell.

“Like any new technology, you’ve got to get past the point at which you can get a return on your investment and you have faith in the marketplace that it’s safe and reliable,” he said.

Development of hydrogen as an energy source has made strides in the 25 years or so the industry has been focusing on it.

“It’s come a long way, but my goodness, it’s very hard to go out and buy a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle unless you live in California, where they actually have about almost 100 hydrogen stations now in a huge state,” he said. “So, it’s just going to take time.”

The U.S. Department of Energy, working with other federal agencies, is doing its part, releasing on Nov. 12 its Hydrogen Program Plan that provides a framework for hydrogen research, development and demonstration activities.

As stated in the plan, the program aims to:

  • Lower costs and improve hydrogen production, delivery, storage and conversion systems;
  • Address barriers to hydrogen’s integration with conventional energy systems;
  • Explore opportunities for large-scale adoption and use;
  • Develop and validate integrated energy systems utilizing hydrogen; and
  • Show the value proposition for hydrogen.

“The key technical challenges for hydrogen and related technologies are cost, durability, reliability, and performance, as well as the lack of hydrogen infrastructure,” the plan states. “To achieve widespread commercialization, hydrogen utilization technologies must enter larger markets and be able to compete with incumbent technologies in terms of life-cycle cost, performance, durability, and environmental impact.”

Non-technical barriers to address include “developing and harmonizing codes and standards, fostering best practices for safety, and developing a robust supply chain and workforce.”