Research firm Wood Mackenzie expects the simmering cost overrun disputes related to the Panama Canal’s expansion to be resolved eventually with limited disruption due to the significance of the canal to global trade.
However, any sort of significant disruptions will crimp profitability for U.S. LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the Gulf Coast petrochemical industry, it said in a report.
“Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved,” said Andrew Buckland, senior LNG shipping analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “If the delays last six to 12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway.”
The expansion will benefit users, depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal. U.S. cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
The expansion could prove a particular help to U.S. coal exports. “When completed, U.S. coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realize substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," said Jaime Correal, Wood Mackenzie senior coal markets analyst.
The Panama Canal Authority recently announced a tentative agreement with the consortium doing the work that would partially pay for cost overruns but delay completion until the end of 2015.
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