Despite long odds, Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell submitted a plan July 9 for seismic exploration of a section of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to determine its oil and gas resources.
The state is attempting to force Interior Secretary Sally Jewell’s hand after a previous proposal was summarily rejected last month. However, a former Obama administration land management official said she would be surprised to see the plan being approved.
Alaska’s plan calls for exploration of the 1002 Area, a 1.5 million acre tract of ANWR set aside in 1980 by Congress and President Jimmy Carter for study as a potential energy source. Early estimates indicated resources there could be colossal.
“The 1002 Area of ANWR holds enormous promise for Alaska and for our nation,” Parnell said. “If this plan and permit application is promptly reviewed and approved as required … I will request a minimum of $50 million to execute this plan.”
Alaska Natural Resource Commissioner Dan Sullivan said the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) requires Jewell to take formal action on the plan. The state contends that if the plan is consistent with ANILCA guidelines it must be approved within 120 days.
Sullivan said the 240-page document submitted to the U.S. Department of the Interior meets all statutory and regulatory requirements for 1002 Area exploration.
“If an exploration plan meets all of these requirements, the secretary is required by law to approve it,” he said.
However, Marcilynn A. Burke, a professor at the University of Houston Law Center and a former Obama administration appointee, noted that the deadline for review isn’t the same as a timeline for approval.
“The law requires the secretary to make a determination of whether or not the plan is consistent within the guidelines within 120 days,” she said. However, “There’s no actual time limit. If the plan meets the guidelines she must approve the plan. But neither the law nor the regulations actually place a time limit on when she must approve it.”
If Jewell approves the plan, she also has discretion to require modifications to the plan as she deems appropriate in order to protect the wildlife, habitat and environment of the refuge, said Burke, who served as acting Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals Management.
Burke oversaw the Bureau of Land Management, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement and the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement.
“This is big enough that no major decisions will be made without close consultation directly with the White House,” Burke said. “Even if the president decides to approve seismic activity, the law generally provides the secretary with tremendous discretion to decide what type of activity occurs there and in what manner.”
Alaska officials have long been frustrated with the pace of its waning oil and gas development and the federal government’s stance on ANWR.
The oil and gas resource potential of Area 1002 is estimated to be in the billions of barrels of recoverable oil. The land is part of the North Slope of Alaska. The non-federal portion is heavily drilled and has produced mightily in years past.
A 1998, U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the entire state and native interests contain a mean 10.4 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil. About 74%, 7.7 billion barrels, is in the federally controlled 1002 Area.
Estimated volume of technically recoverable oil, millions of barrels | |||
Study Area | 95% probability | Mean | 5% probability |
Entire assessment area | 5,724 | 10,360 | 15,955 |
ANWR 1002 area (Federal), TOTAL | 4,254 | 7,668 | 11,799 |
Northwestern (undeformed) | 3,403 | 6,420 | 10,224 |
Southwestern (deformed) | 0 | 1,248 | 3,185 |
Source: 1998 U.S. Geological Survey assessment |
By comparison, the Prudhoe Bay field, the largest oil field in North America, was originally estimated to hold 9.6 billion barrels of oil. Cumulative production to date has exceeded 12 billion barrels of oil.
The Prudhoe Bay pushed Alaska’s oil production to a peak of 2.2 million barrels per day in 1988. Alaska daily production has dropped to about 500,000 barrels per day in 2013, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The area in question makes up less than 8% of ANWR’s 19.8 million acres. The Institute for Energy Research says oil and gas production in the 1002 Area would be limited to only 2,000 acres or 0.01% of ANWR’s acreage.
On May 18, with support from local leaders and Arctic Slope Regional Corp. President and Chief Executive Officer Rex Rock, the state submitted a detailed 1002 Area exploration proposal and offered to help finance seismic studies in the 1002 Area.
In June, Jewell “completely rejected” the state proposal and an offer of funding support, Alaska officials said.
Undeterred, the state is now submitting a formal exploration plan and special-use permit application for the 1002 Area.
The state’s exploration plan calls for a three-year seismic program from 2014 to 2017. The 3-D seismic data gathered would be vastly superior to 2-D seismic data in terms of imaging capabilities, the state said.
Sullivan said the U.S. Department of Interior approved 1002 Area exploration plans in the 1980s and that the law does not contain a sunset provision and therefore is still on the books.
Burke said the state may be playing for concessions aimed at opening up additional drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska or additional offshore drilling.
The state is also facing capacity loss in the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS).
“One of the state’s major concerns is to keep the pipeline alive,” Burke said. But even if Obama said he would consider oil and gas activity in the refuge it would be many years before any of that oil would see the pipeline.
“I hope what’s not lost in the noise is that this is all assuming that the plan is actually consistent with the guidelines,” she said. “I find it very unlikely that the Department of Interior will find that the plan is consistent with the guidelines.”
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