In recent years, industry associations, academic institutions, and oil and gas companies have begun to recognize an unsettling trend: ours is an aging industry, and we are not attracting enough young minds to lead us into the future. According to statistics from several industry associations, the average age of oil and gas professionals is 48. Research conducted by Mukul M. Sharma, Ph.D., professor and chairman in the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin, shows some disturbing facts: 50% of the industry's current workers will retire within 7 years; and the industry has reduced its workforce by a staggering 60% in the past 20 years. This sobering fact, combined with fewer graduates entering the industry, is leading us toward a crisis in which we won't have enough E&P workers to meet increased demand.

Many US university programs have seen an overall decline in undergraduate petroleum engineering and geoscience enrollments during the past 15 years.

According to Dr. Sharma's research, BS programs for petroleum engineering in US schools have decreased from 34 in 1982 to 19 in 2000, a drop of 44%. Enrollment in these programs has decreased from 9,492 in 1982 to 1,500 in 2000, a decline of 84%. The Bachelor of Science degrees awarded decreased from 1,280 in 1982 to 230 in 2000, or 82%. However, several leading engineering programs indicate their overall programs remained steady during the past 10 years thanks to growth in their graduate programs.

According to Dr. Richard N. Horne, professor and chairman of Stanford University's Petroleum Engineering Department, his program maintains a controlled number of graduate students, but has seen its undergraduate program drop to as low as zero in the past 15 years.

In geoscience, a concern expressed by Barry Katz, a member of AAPG's research committee and coordinator of an ongoing survey regarding the numbers of geoscience professionals, is that the number of geoscience graduates who actually become employed in the industry is about 23%.

International students are increasingly sustaining the US academic programs serving the industry. Horne said 90% of his students in Stanford's petroleum engineering program are non-US citizens, which, he said, has been the case for nearly 10 years. This trend appears to be consistent among many of the key schools in the United States.

Internationally, student enrollments in oil and gas disciplines appear to be holding steady or increasing, although some programs have been streamlined or eliminated in the United Kingdom, according to Dr. Andrew Hurst at the University of Aberdeen.

According to feedback from working professionals, academics and association leaders in the United States, several issues are driving these trends:

• some students believe we are running out of oil and gas, and careers would be short-lived;
• students believe there are few jobs available and the industry has a "hire and fire" mentality;
• some view the industry as old-fashioned and lacking in technological innovation; and
• the industry has a negative image problem.

Technology can never replace the human brain, which has the ability to validate and interrogate computer-generated interpretations with actual knowledge of a reservoir, rock property or performance of a well under certain conditions. This is the value of experience, experience that is gained over time.
As service-related companies, we have to accept the challenge and opportunity to recreate ourselves to better serve our customers. Over time, we will take a strategic as well as operational role in helping our customers leverage their portfolios. This will be our value proposition, better enabling the traditional values we have provided in terms of content, software and services.

Our industry must invest in our people long-term and do a better job of both public education and public relations. Companies, associations, industry vendors and academic institutions must work together to solve these challenges. Our future depends on it.

Mike McCrory is president and chief operating officer of IHS Energy.