As experts look to 2021, their carefully constructed models for oil and gas production and pricing have been upended by the pandemic’s stubborn resurgence and the resulting harm to businesses, industries and economic projections.

The recovery is coming, but its timing, strength and duration are not known, now that the COVID-19 impact will last longer than anyone hoped—and yet, the vaccine news is positive for the second half. We may finally get this thing under control in the new year, which, when combined with a new stimulus bill from Congress, could set off a V-shaped economic recovery.

First, let’s talk about oil. Some twists and turns depend on what member nations of OPEC+ decide to do, which was not clear at press time. But the head of oil markets for consulting firm Rystad Energy, Bjornar Tonhaugen, said recently in his daily oil report, “All smoke signals point to a three- to six-month extension of the current [OPEC] cuts.”

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