Bloomberg scrapes imply that gas field production was 250 MMcf/d higher when compared to the past week, but imports from Canada increased by 0.78 billion cubic feet (Bcf) while Mexico exports also increased by 0.44 Bcf. Average residential and commercial consumer demand was strong at 28.95 Bcf/d, a 21% increase week-on-week due to cold weather prevailing in all regions except the West. Power generation demand dropped by more 8 Bcf during the report week as is expected during winter months. 

Our analysis leads us to expect a minor 3 Bcf draw will be reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Nov. 14. This would be in contrast to the 25 Bcf five-year average build as well as the consensus whisper expectation of a 3 Bcf build. If any export pickup occurs (perhaps into Mexico, which should also be facing the current colder than normal blast), we could even see a larger withdraw this week, although that is not our current expectation.

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