At the most recent OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meetings at the end of June, OPEC reiterated that its goal is to return Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) OECD crude stock levels to the five-year average seen in 2015.

The 2015 average was specifically cited during the press conference because subsequent years suffer from bloated stock levels and thus provide too high a baseline. However, Stratas Advisors’ most recent forecast of OECD stock levels, released as part of the Short Term Outlook Service’s latest Crude Oil Outlook shows that this may be an impossible target to meet before March 2020, raising the question of what happens next.

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