ICE Vs. EV

General Motors CEO Mary Barra stood before a large audience comprised mostly of global stakeholders in the oil and gas industry and waxed passionately about how America’s premier automobile manufacturer is on a mission to convert all of its produced automobiles to 100% electric powered. From GM’s perspective, you can say goodbye to the ICE, or internal combustion engine. GM isn’t interested in waiting for peak oil demand; GM is attempting to fast-forward peak oil demand.

“Today I want to focus on zero emissions and how our electric vehicle strategy will get us there,” she told the audience at CERAWeek in Houston, IHS Markit’s annual Davos of energy. She called the effort to produce solely electric vehicles (EVs) a goal but did not mentioning a time frame.

Last year, sales from three GM EV cars accounted for 25% of the 1.2 million total EV and hybrid sales worldwide, including its popular Chevy Bolt EV.

“We are on our way to bringing at least 20 all-new electric models to market by 2023—our next step toward a zero emissions world. Our commitment to an all-electric, zero emissions future is unwavering, regardless of any modifications to any future fuel economy standards.”

Barra believes consumer anxiety over driving range is an issue solved, with the Bolt able to achieve 238 miles before needing a recharge. Infrastructure, particularly charging stations, is the next hurdle to overcome, she said, and she reached out to the audience to partner in that effort.

“We encourage the energy and power industry to partner with us on robust charging infrastructure that drives consumer confidence and enables people to trust that they can drive their cars anywhere at any time.”

Why oil and gas companies would be motivated to help decrease demand for their product was not immediately clear, although BP Plc CEO Bob Dudley the previous day said his company’s vast reach of retail petrol stations would begin incorporating “ultra-fast charging sites” alongside its gasoline and diesel pumps. “I think we can get it down to eight minutes from 20 to 30 today.”

I was surprised you could charge up in just 30 minutes. With recharge time being the largest obstacle to driving an EV in my own mind, maybe that future is closer than many in the oil and gas space anticipate. Is an all-electric consumer fleet a game-changer for the oil and gas business? Is the shale revolution a last hurrah for good ol’ crude?

Maybe not.

One prominent world energy leader, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, also speaking at CERAWeek, said to hold your horsepower. “The future role of oil is widely misunderstood,” he declared.

First and foremost, the light-duty passenger vehicle segment makes up just 20% of global oil demand today, he said, and currently 99% of that segment is still powered by an internal combustion engine. “Many wrongly believe that it is a simple matter of electric vehicles quickly and smoothly replacing the internal combustion engine…but it is far more complex.”

In fact, five technologies are competing to be the powertrain of the future: advanced ICE, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, pure battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell. Three contain an internal combustion engine; the other two face steep hurdles, including affordability, massive infrastructure buildout and governments’ ability to subsidize as usage grows.

“The powertrain of the future is far from decided,” Nasser said.

Nasser even accused all-electric proponents of “simply moving emissions from the tailpipe to the smoke stack” in growing vehicle demand markets such as China and India, where coal makes up the majority of power generation. Much of GM’s EV growth plan takes place in China, the world’s largest passenger vehicle market with 28 million cars on the road. China last year mandated that 8% of new car sales be all electric by 2020.

Nasser said battery electric vehicles will grow and have a welcome role to play in global mobility, but he emphasized the 20% oil demand from the light-duty passenger vehicle segment “should not be exaggerated. That still leaves the other 80% where demand continues to grow.”

In a sideline interview with CNBC, Nasser said EVs would not be a “huge part” of the transportation fleet for decades to come. Also on CNBC, Barra countered, “I think it’s going to happen more quickly than decades.”

Barra may be right, considering the public’s desire to shift to a carbonless-fueled society—and quickly—but it may not matter for oil producers. Nasser said that perception is fueled by “irrational hopes of rapid switching and a lack of realism” as to the ongoing need for fossil fuels into the future.

“Oil and gas will continue to play a major role in a world where all energy sources will be required for the foreseeable future,” said Nasser. “I am not losing any sleep over peak oil demand.”