The spot price of West Texas Intermediate pounded the high-flying Dow Jones industrials' gains in 1999, improving 112% to the Dow's 25%, but oil-company stocks were impaled, in contrast. "The group produced returns that can be described as above average by historical market standards, but below expectations in light of sizzling crude oil prices and firm North American natural gas quotes," John S. Herold Inc. analysts report in their 1999 year-end survey of 300 oil stocks' performances. The Stamford, Connecticut-based oil industry research firm reviews oil-sector investment performances annually. The 1998 review's subtitle borrowed from Tenneyson, "Into the Valley of Death Rode the 300." The newer report explains "Rally Runs Out of Gas in August." Industry stocks soared as crude prices improved, but tumbled again in the third quarter even though crude prices continued to rise. In all, 30 issues doubled in price, compared with none in 1998 and 30 in 1997. Robert E. Gillon, senior analyst, Matti Teittinen, an associate analyst, and Nicholas D. Cacchione, director of research, charted 300 stocks in 1999. They mention that 73 companies have disappeared from the survey in the past three years, or about 25% of the initial survey group. Replacing them have been overseas companies and about three dozen newly public companies. In terms of total shareholder return, stock in drilling companies was worth 112% more on average on December 31, 1999, than the year before. The authors add, however, than some of these stocks, such as those of Grey Wolf and Patterson Energy, were severely depressed when the year began, and their significant gains still did not offset prior-year losses. (The best performer among all service-company stocks the Herold analysts reviewed in 1998 had finished that year 22.9% lower than it began.) Giving the oil and gas investor the second-most value were large Canadian E&P companies: total return averaged 36.7% in 1999. Next were overseas E&P companies (34.5%), overseas integrateds (29.1%), Canadian integrateds and diversifieds (27.8%), large domestic E&Ps (22.1%), large integrated oils (19.0%), and small domestic E&Ps (17.1%). Canadian stocks-upstream and downstream-outperformed their U.S. peers a second consecutive year, the analysts note. Investments in service companies, not including drilling companies, were worth 10.7% more at year-end. The group of midsize domestic E&Ps cost investors, meanwhile; these stocks finished 0.3% lower than year-end 1998, on average. Investments in refiners and marketers tanked; the average return for the group was -17.0%. "...It was a decent year for energy investors, but the stocks once again trailed the broad market," the analysts write. -Nissa Darbonne
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