Goldman Sachs on Nov. 20 cut its fourth-quarter Brent oil price forecasts by $10 to $100 a barrel, citing factors including a likely hit to consumption from China's COVID case spike.
But the investment bank said that the China concerns were "another speed bump on the road higher," since the major consumer has indicated that this is the beginning of the end for lockdowns. Goldman said it is keeping its 2023 Brent forecast unchanged at $110 a barrel.
"We still believe Russian production will decline about 0.6 MMbbl/d from here, with risks of a deeper, more abrupt disruption, still present," the bank said, warning that inventories could deplete once again in the first half of 2023 if OPEC and its allies maintain current output quotas.
Oil prices dropped to near two-month lows on Nov. 21 as supply fears receded while concerns over fuel demand from China and the dollar's strength took center stage. Benchmark Brent prices were trading around $87 a barrel.
"While it’s tempting to blame a lack of liquidity for yet another November price capitulation, we believe the market has a right to be anxious about forward fundamentals, even if technical factors may have exacerbated the move lower," the bank said.
The bank also said a "lack of clarity on the implementation of the G7's price cap" could be adding to the anxiety in the market.
Goldman had lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and 2023 in September, citing expectations for lower demand growth. It then raised those forecasts in October due to an output cut agreed by OPEC+ producers.
The EU's energy policy chief told Reuters the EU expected to have its regulations completed in time for the introduction of a G7 plan to cap the price of Russian crude on Dec. 5.
Recommended Reading
Lake Charles LNG Selects Technip Energies, KBR for Export Terminal
2024-09-20 - Lake Charles LNG has selected KTJV, the joint venture between Technip Energies and KBR, for the engineering, procurement, fabrication and construction of an LNG export terminal project on the Gulf Coast.
Macquarie Sees Potential for Large Crude Draw Next Week
2024-09-19 - Macquarie analysts estimate an 8.2 MMbbl draw down in U.S. crude stocks and exports rebound.
EIA Reports Natural Gas Storage Jumped 58 Bcf
2024-09-19 - The weekly storage report, released Sept. 19, showed a 58 Bcf increase from the week before, missing consensus market expectations of 53 Bcf, according to East Daley Analytics.
Electrification Lights Up Need for Gas, LNG
2024-09-20 - As global power demand rises, much of the world is unable to grasp the need for gas or the connection to LNG, experts said.
Woodside to Maintain at Least 50% Interest in Driftwood LNG
2024-09-18 - Australia’s Woodside Energy plans to maintain at least a 50% interest in the 27.6 mtpa Driftwood LNG project that it's buying from Tellurian, CEO Meg O’Neill said during a media briefing at Gastech in Houston.
Comments
Add new comment
This conversation is moderated according to Hart Energy community rules. Please read the rules before joining the discussion. If you’re experiencing any technical problems, please contact our customer care team.