In the week since the last What’s Affecting Oil Prices, Brent rose only $0.31/bbl last week to average $78.80/bbl as WTI rose $1.34/bbl to average $70.29/bbl. Counter seasonal draws supported WTI and ongoing concerns around global supply are supporting Brent.

For the week ahead, we expect Brent to maintain its strength averaging $78.50/bbl after the OPEC/non-OPEC ministerial monitoring committee meeting ended with no formal agreement to raise production and without a plan to achieve the production levels agreed to at the June OPEC meeting.

Geopolitical: Neutral

Geopolitics will be a neutral factor in the week ahead.

Dollar: Negative

The dollar will be a negative factor in the week ahead as fears of emerging market weakness stemming from a strong dollar impact demand expectations.

Trader Sentiment: Positive

Trader sentiment will be a positive factor in the week ahead as increasing Brent net longs point to ongoing concerns around supply.

Supply: Positive

Supply will be a positive factor in the week ahead, especially after the OPEC / non-OPEC meeting ended with no formal plan to raise production.

Demand: Neutral

Demand will be a neutral factor in the week ahead as concerns grow about future demand in light of President Trump’s latest tariffs.  

Refining: Neutral

Refining will be a neutral factor in the week ahead, as product stocks enter the winter season elevated in both Europe and North America.