Refining Unconventional Oil
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Refining Unconventional Oil

This independent forecast of 2012-2016 crude fundamentals offers a comprehensive assessment across the entire integrated U.S. upstream, midstream, and downstream petroleum industry. Nationally and regionally for five U.S. PADD areas, Hart Energy balances proprietary unconventional and conventional crude oil production projections with expected changes to refining capacity and heavy and light crude oil imports. The report also quantifies the surprisingly robust economic advantages of using shale gas for fuel in U.S. refining industry. Fully illustrated by Hart Energy Mapping & GIS Services, the projections incorporate maps and tabulations of long-haul fixed pipeline, crude-by-rail terminal, and refinery capital projects expected to come online in the U.S. over the coming critical 5-year period.

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Key Benefits
Upstream
  • Annual oil production forecasts for key U.S. crude-oil rich unconventional plays
  • Aggregated unconventional and conventional crude production forecasts for 5 U.S. PADDs
  • Allocation of crude imports
Map 1
Midstream
  • Existing and planned long-haul pipeline capacity investments across all PADD regions
  • Existing and planned crude-by-rail loading and unloading terminals coast-to-coast
  • Storage capacity additions along the Gulf Coast and at Cushing, Oklahoma
  • Potential waterborne and land-based pipeline routes to East and West Coasts
Downstream
  • Crude cost advantages drive refining margins and refining capacity expansions, while disadvantages drive refining closures and divestments
  • Light unconventional crude to raise Gulf Coast refining margins and offer East and West Coast refiners a lifeline to more sustainable profitability
  • U.S. refiners to complete legacy heavy oil processing projects while newer strategies involve investing in refining capacity for light unconventional oil
  • Discounted shale gas used for fuel offers regional and national advantages for energy-intensive refineries
Map 1
Who reads this report
  • Oil & Gas Producers Petroleum Traders / Commodity Investors Rail, Barge & Truck Logistics Providers Midstream Pipeline, Storage & Logistics Providers Refinery Operators Government Agencies, Advisors & Regulators Process and Technology Licensors & Suppliers
  • Equipment Manufacturers & Vendors
  • Engineering & Construction
  • Buy-side and Sell-side Equity and Debt Analysts
  • Investors and Capital Providers
Authors

Greg Haas, Manager of Research, Integrated Oil & Gas at Hart Energy is the principal author of this study. Haas leverages 20 years of integrated global energy experience garnered in operating and fundamental research roles at Exxon, at EPRI and pipeline and power consultancies, and at brokerage firms including Raymond James Financial. Greg holds an MBA from Rice University and mechanical engineering Master and Bachelor degrees from University of Illinois.

Dr. Michael Warren, Executive Director, Research at Hart Energy joined the company in 2009 after 12 years as the national manager of research with Toyota Motor North America. Michael represented Toyota on the National Petroleum Council for Congress. Michael holds degrees from Tulane University and the University of Southern Maine.

Laura Atkins, Director, Petroleum Research at Hart Energy has spent more than 20 years in the upstream oil and gas industry, starting as a petroleum engineer at Amoco. She most recently worked at OPEC for three years as a senior research analyst for energy technology. Laura has BS in Chemical Engineering from Tulane and Master's in Public Administration from Harvard University. Laura has authored Hart Energy's Global Shale Gas Study and Heavy Crude Oil Outlook.

Narmadha Navaneethan, Upstream Research Analyst at Hart Energy holds an MBA from University of Houston with specialization in Energy Investment Analysis and Energy Finance and a Bachelor of Engineering from India. Narmadha's responsibilities include acquiring, managing and analyzing oil and gas market data and contributing to industry reports.

Terry Higgins, Executive Director, Global Refining & Special Projects at Hart Energy has more than 30 years of refining experience. He served as Technical Director for NPRA for 14 years and also worked with TEXACO, HESS, and US DOE. He is the recipient of NPRA's 2010 Peter G. Andrews Lifetime Service Award.