Oil prices surged about 8% on Nov. 9, its biggest daily gain in more five months, after Pfizer announced promising results for its COVID-19 vaccine.
An extra bucket of cold water—the Convent refinery shutdown in Louisiana by Shell is more meaningful than it seems, Stratas Advisors says in its latest oil price forecast.
"Oil prices surged on Monday benefiting from a risk-on stance and a weaker U.S. dollar driven by Joe Biden becoming president-elect," said Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst for UBS.
Shell said on Nov. 5 it will shut down its refinery in Convent, La., the largest U.S. facility to close since the coronavirus pandemic first hit and devastated economic demand worldwide.
Venezuela's oil exports fell to a historic low of 359,000 bbl/d in October as most of state-run PDVSA's long-term clients paused trade to meet a U.S. deadline to halt business with the firm.
OPEC and Russia imposed a record oil output cut in April to support prices as the COVID-19 pandemic shrank demand. They are considering further steps as the global number of coronavirus cases is rising sharply.
Reuters and other outlets reported last month that the French government asked power group Engie to delay signing a 20-year $7 billion U.S. LNG import contract on concerns about U.S. environmental rollbacks.
A vote of confidence—three different oil markets are behind crude price volatility, Stratas Advisors says in its latest oil price forecast.
U.S. oil output reached around 13 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) in February before the coronavirus pandemic hit fuel demand.