A radio news program this morning began with a question: "What do you do when approached by a bear?" The program (aired by KUHT-FM in Houston/National Public Radio) is an eclectic collection of news, essays and narrations. The answer to the question seemed obvious: Stay still and slowly back away. But the question was concerning bears in the financial markets. Very clever story-writing, indeed. Most investors, when surrounded by Investment Bears run and scream, the reporter noted. Truth is that those running and screaming are Investment Bears too, due to their behavior. So what is the best tack, if you're an Investment Bull surrounded by Bears? Buy. While the bears are looking away, buy, buy, buy. I remember when Halliburton stock was $10. This was in December 2001/January 2002. I remember when The Williams Cos. shares were $6 in 2002. Warren Buffett made a deal with Williams: a roughly $1B, 364-day loan at roughly a 33% interest rate. Yes, really. And, the collateral Willliams put up largely consisted of the Barrett Resources Corp. E&P assets for which it had paid some $2.5 billion in cash and stock fewer than 24 months earlier. Was Buffett onto something? Yes. Either way, he couldn't lose. He would make a 33% return in one year, or win some E&P assets that surely he knew would one day be worth 3x (at $140 oil and $12 natural gas) their worth at the time. He listened to the bears by ignoring them. Smartly, Williams' leadership pulled the company through and paid off the loan early, retaining all the very valuable upside of the Barrett assets. So what to do when surrounded by Investment Bears? Buy (quietly). For the full back story on Williams, Barrett and Buffett, use the Search feature at www.OilandGasInvestor.com. –Nissa Darbonne, Executive Editor, Oil and Gas Investor, A&D Watch, www.OilandGasInvestor.com; ndarbonne@hartenergy.com
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