Teri Viswanath, analyst for Credit Suisse, has lowered the firm's gas price outlook for 2009 and 2010. "We are lowering our 2009 and 2010 U.S. natural gas price forecast to $3.92 from $4.00, and to $4.642 from $5.14, respectively, based upon our view that the combination of relatively stable supplies and lower demand will continue to weigh on U.S. natural gas prices through 2010," she says. Given the year-long reduction in gas drilling, it is not surprising that Credit Suisse's forecast for domestic production calls for a sharp decline next year. What is surprising is that the firm believes that the significant drop in domestic production will have very little impact on natural gas prices. "We believe that higher worldwide liquefaction capacity, combined with weaker global demand, will ensure that U.S. supplies remain somewhat stable as rising LNG imports offset declining domestic production," says Viswanath. "Relatively stable levels of supply and lower demand should continue to weigh on U.S. natural gas prices through 2010." The bottom line? Investors should consider selling the balance of the 2009 NYMEX strip, she says.
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