During a conference call on Jan. 21, Deutsche Bank Chief Energy Economist Adam Siemenski shared the Deutsche Bank global economics team's predictions for 2009 and beyond. OilandGasInvestor.com premium subscribers can view the entire interview here. "While we're going to have a severe recession, it's not the end of the world. We will recover, but it might not be until 2010," Sieminski said. Sieminski reviewed "alphabet economics" : a V-shape, which is a speedy recovery (e.g. 2001), a U-shape, which is a mild recession with a long, drawn-out recovery (e.g. 1990), a W-shape, which is a severe recession with a long, drawn-out recession (e.g. 1981), and a L-shape, which is a Depression (e.g. 1929). Siemenski's economic alphabet prediction for our current economic status? He puts 45% of his predictions on the W-shape. "The economy is decelerating, we're getting more refining capacity, the dollar is strengthened. Another interesting comment Sieminski made during the call: "Some of you may have heard a comment my colleague Paul Sankey made the other day. He said the problem with the oil market now is there's not enough speculators. There's not enough money in the hedge funds to go out and become involved in the oil markets."
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