Oil steadied on Feb. 7 as growing expectations that global supply could fall significantly short of demand this year lent support, offsetting the negative impact of a rise in U.S. inventories.
Brent crude oil futures were last down 12 cents at $62.57 a barrel by 1022 GMT, while U.S. crude futures were down 7 cents at $53.94 a barrel.
The oil price came under pressure earlier in the day following weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Feb. 6 that showed an unwelcome increase in stocks of crude oil.
Still, some analysts were relieved that U.S. crude oil inventories only rose by 1.3 MMbbl in the week to Feb. 1, according to the EIA, compared with expectations for an increase of 2.2 MMbbl.
PVM Oil Associates strategist Tamas Varga pointed out that the rise in crude inventory masked a bullish decline in stocks of refined products.
"The weekly report from the EIA on U.S. oil stocks was bullish for outright prices, plain and simple. The large draws in distillate ... made sure that commercial oil inventories fell for the second week, this time by 3.4 million barrels," he said.
"Additionally, the builds in crude (+1.3 MMbbl) and gasoline stocks (+0.5 MMbbl) were less than anticipated."
U.S. distillate stocks fell by 2.3 MMbbl, while inventories of other refined fuels dropped by 2.9 MMbbl.
The oil price is still showing a 20 percent gain so far this year, but has struggled to return to the near-four year highs of late 2018, given the concern that a slowing global economy could eat into fuel demand, with German industrial output unexpectedly falling in December for the fourth consecutive month.
Yet some investors believe these concerns may be overblown, in light of the decline in OPEC production and a squeeze on supply from Iran and Venezuela from U.S. sanctions.
"We believe that financial markets may be overestimating the risks of a global recession. Moreover, lower oil prices – prices were between 14 % and 18 % lower in January than their 2018 average—are likely to stimulate economic activity and oil demand, particularly in emerging markets," said Jean-Pierre Durante, Head of Applied Research at Pictet Wealth Management.
Providing global markets with price support are supply cuts led by the OPEC aimed at tightening the market.
Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's oil industry are expected to freeze sales proceeds of Venezuelan crude exports to the United States.
"Around a third of Venezuela's exports head to the U.S. As such, we expect Venezuelan exports to quickly fall by 300,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) to around 700,000 bbl/d," ANZ bank said on Feb. 7.
Stratas Advisors analyst says that the possibility of a spill has already caused the price of Mexican heavy crude to rise quickly.
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said Feb. 11 the city is abandoning a plan to spend billions of dollars rebuilding three natural gas power plants along the coast.
The recent Polar Vortex did its damage, but as winter weather goes, say Drillinginfo and Wood Mac, this one is not terribly cold and gas prices are holding steady.