U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise by less than previously expected to 11.76 million barrels per day (bbl/d) next year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said June 12.
In its monthly short-term energy outlook, the agency forecast that U.S. crude oil output will rise by 970,000 bbl/d in 2019. Last month, it expected a 1.14 million bbl/d year-over-year increase to 11.86 million bbl/d.
U.S. oil production was forecast to touch a record 12 million bbl/d in fourth-quarter 2019 but EIA pared its expectations, saying it was now expected to be about 11.97 million bbl/d.
For 2018, the agency upped its production estimate to 10.79 million bbl/d, expecting growth of 1.44 million bbl/d, according to the report. It previously expected output to rise by 1.37 million bbl/d to 10.72 million bbl/d.
U.S. crude production has surged over the past eight years thanks to a shale boom, driven primarily by gains in the prolific Permian Basin, which stretches across West Texas and eastern New Mexico.
On the demand side, the EIA expects U.S. oil consumption growth in 2018 to rise by 530,000 bbl/d to 20.41 million bbl/d compared with a previous forecast of a rise of 500,000 bbl/d to 20.38 million bbl/d.
The agency also and slightly hiked its 2019 demand forecast to 20.67 million bbl/d from 20.64 million bbl/d previously.
The shale boom took energy security off the U.S. political agenda, but that may not last.
Saudi Aramco is exploring investment opportunities to invest in gas projects globally to meet soaring domestic consumption, according to Ahmad AlSa'adi, senior vice president of technical services.
Meanwhile, gross natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 fell for the first time in a year, sliding in January from a record high the month before, says the EIA.