U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise by 1.25 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) in 2019 to a record of 12.24 MMbbl/d, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Sept. 10, slightly lower than its previous forecast for a rise of 1.28 MMbbl/d.
The output in 2020 is forecast to rise by 990,000 bbl/d to 13.23 MMbbl/d, according to the EIA.
“EIA’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook continues to forecast record U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 2020,” EIA Administrator Dr. Linda Capuano said.
U.S. crude output has surged to records above 12 MMbbl/d this year, thanks to gains from the Permian Basin spanning Texas and New Mexico, the biggest oil patch in the country. The United States is now the world’s largest producer, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Still, the rate of growth has slowed, with U.S. energy firms reducing the number of oil rigs operating for the ninth straight month to its lowest since January 2018 as most producers cut spending on new drilling this year.
A trade war between China and the United States, the world’s two largest economies, has roiled financial markets and sparked worries about economic and oil demand growth.
The EIA also cut its 2019 world oil demand growth forecast by 110,000 bbl/d to 890,000 bbl/d. In the monthly forecast, the agency cut its world oil demand growth estimate for 2020 by 30,000 bbl/d to 1.40 MMbbl/d.
Meanwhile, the EIA forecast U.S. oil demand for 2019 to rise by 140,000 bbl/d to 20.59 MMbbl/d, down from 210,000 bbl/d in its previous estimate. The agency also estimates U.S. oil demand will rise by 260,000 bbl/d to 20.85 MMbbl/d in 2020, lower than a previous forecast of a 260,000 bbl/d increase.
Houston-based Kinder Morgan is cashing in its Canadian affiliate plus ownership in the Cochin pipeline through asset sales to Pembina Pipeline worth roughly $2.5 billion.
Production, volumes to process and move, EBITDA are all vulnerable in the near term, says Alerian.
Combined with a shaky outlook for the world economy and trade tensions, the campaign to push institutional investors to withdraw from fossil fuel stocks has contributed to driving down share prices.