Brent fell $1.35 per barrel (bbl) last week to average $65.49/bbl while WTI had a more stable week, falling only $0.18/bbl to average $56.37/bbl. For the week ahead, we expect Brent to average $66/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $56/bbl.
Geopolitical: Neutral
On the geopolitical front, negotiations with North Korea fell apart, but were amicable enough not to raise red flags. In Venezuela, the much-feared confrontation between government and opposition forces flared out fairly quickly.
Dollar: Negative
Markets will continue to focus on macroeconomic data, particularly any updates from the negotiations between China and the United States. Also this week, a new Markit PMI and data about factory orders and worker productivity will be released. These reports are regularly called out as early warning signs when looking at the U.S. economy.
Trader Sentiment: Positive
Trader positioning continues to show some optimism for prices, although there is a stronger bullish sentiment towards international prices than domestic U.S., stemming from ongoing concerns about oversupply.
Supply: Negative
The latest Baker Hughes rig count showed that rigs fell last week, and are now at the lowest level since May 2018. This supports our theory that U.S. operators will maintain capital discipline, despite higher crude prices.
Demand: Neutral
Demand will be a neutral factor in the week ahead. In the U.S., crude runs continue to seasonally decline, but likely builds in crude stocks will be offset by expected declines in product stocks.
Refining: Neutral
Refining will be a neutral factor in the week ahead.
Recommended Reading
First Solar’s 14 GW of Operational Capacity to Support 30,000 Jobs by 2026
2024-02-26 - First Solar commissioned a study to analyze the economic impact of its vertically integrated solar manufacturing value chain.
SunPower Begins Search for New CEO
2024-02-27 - Former CEO Peter Faricy departed SunPower Corp. on Feb. 26, according to the company.
Green Swan Seeks US Financing for Global Decarbonization Projects
2024-02-21 - Green Swan, an investment platform seeking to provide capital to countries signed on to the Paris Agreement, is courting U.S. investors to fund decarbonization projects in countries including Iran and Venezuela, its executives told Hart Energy.
M4E Lithium Closes Funding for Brazilian Lithium Exploration
2024-03-15 - M4E’s financing package includes an equity investment, a royalty purchase and an option for a strategic offtake agreement.
GE Vernova Completes Spin-Off from GE
2024-04-04 - GE Vernova, an energy transition company, began trading as an independent company on the New York Stock Exchange this week.