What's Affecting Oil Prices This Week? (June 9, 2025)

The price of Brent crude ended the week at $66.65 after closing the previous week at $63.35. The price of WTI ended the week at $64.77 after closing the previous week at $60.94. The price of Oman crude oil ended the week at $65.83.

Last week’s price movement highlights the volatility that is being driven by news headlines, which do not necessarily change the supply and demand fundamentals. Oil prices got a boost earlier in the week from the drone attack launched by Ukraine on Russia’s airbases. Prices then drifted downward until oil prices got another boost on June 6 when President Trump announced that he had a conversation with President Xi Jinping and that the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other U.S. officials will be meeting in London with their Chinese counterparts starting June 9 for trade talks.

Oil prices also got support from favorable economic news about the U.S. economy. The latest jobs report, which was released June 6, showed that the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May and that the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. So far this year, the U.S. has added 124,000 jobs per month, and wage gains are higher than the inflation rate. The better-than-expected jobs report follows favorable inflation data. The latest reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) that was released shows that the PCE fell in April to 2.1% on an annual basis, which is the lowest in four years. The core PCE (excluding energy and food) came in at 2.5%, which is down from 2.7% in March. More inflation data will be released this week, including the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. Besides the favorable job numbers and inflation data, the GDP nowcast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is indicating that the U.S. economy will grow by 3.8% in 2Q, in part, from the increased contribution of net exports. Despite the positive data, there are worrisome signs about the U.S. economy. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is still low with a final reading for May of 52.2, which is the fourth-lowest reading since 1952, and is 30% lower than one year ago. Besides the tariffs, there are concerns about the Republican tax cut and spending bill – the “Big Beautiful Bill” – in terms of the status of the bill and impact of the bill on the deficit and national debt. There are also signs that U.S. consumers are under pressure, with delinquency rates on consumer debt continuing to increase this year. The percentage of people with credit card debt that is 90 days delinquent now exceeds 10%, and it is not only the less-well-off feeling the pressure – around 5% of those in the 10% highest income bracket have credit card debt that is 90 days delinquent.  

The economic data for China also highlights challenges. While the U.S. Federal Reserve is worried about potential inflation from tariffs, China is facing deflationary pressures. China’s consumer prices in May decreased by 0.1% from the previous year, and this is the fourth consecutive month of decreasing consumer prices. Producer prices also decreased in May, and are 3.3% lower in comparison with the previous year. The falling prices are the result of weak domestic demand coupled with overcapacity. 

For the upcoming week, we expect that the headlines will continue to drive oil prices. Any positive news coming from the U.S.-China trade talks will provide another boost for oil prices; however, the downside risk is even greater. If the talks break down, oil prices will have a steep reversal. We don’t expect geopolitics will have much influence this week with the possibility of a nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S. seemingly not imminent, but neither is military action against Iran. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with no end in sight. One wildcard is the sanctions on major oil producers, namely Iran, Russia and Venezuela, but while there is plenty of talk about increasing the sanctions, including secondary sanctions, the impact on oil supply has been negligible.

As such, for this week, we think it is likely that oil prices will move upward with the expectation that positive news will come out of the U.S.-China trade talks. If this happens, we expect that the price of Brent crude will test $68, and if it breaks through this level could reach $70.

For a complete forecast of crude oil and refined products and other energy-related fundamentals and prices, please refer to our Short-term Outlook.

About the Author: John E. Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors, is responsible for managing the research and consulting business worldwide. Prior to joining Stratas Advisors, Paisie was a partner with PFC Energy, a strategic consultancy based in Washington, D.C., where he led a global practice focused on helping clients (including IOCs, NOC, independent oil companies and governments) to understand the future market environment and competitive landscape, set an appropriate strategic direction and implement strategic initiatives. He worked more than eight years with IBM Consulting (formerly PriceWaterhouseCoopers, PwC Consulting) as an associate partner in the strategic change practice focused on the energy sector while residing in Houston, Singapore, Beijing and London.