In the week since our last edition of What’s Affecting Oil Prices, Brent rose $0.67/bbl last week to average $62.18/bbl.
WTI however fell $0.20/bbl to average $53.52/bbl. Both crudes lost strength throughout the week on the back of persistent concerns about the global economy. For the week ahead we expect crude to continue to tread water with Brent averaging $62/bbl and WTI averaging $53.50/bbl.
Geopolitics will be a positive factor in the week as the situation in Venezuela continues to bear watching. Additionally, chances of a disruption in Libya are rising as government forces from both the official and unofficial administration are in a showdown over the El Sharara Field.
The dollar will be a neutral factor in the week ahead but economic concerns will persist.
Trader Sentiment: Negative
Trader sentiment will be a negative factor in the week ahead as market concerns about the economy and oversupply continue to grow.
Supply will be a neutral factor in the week ahead. It looks like the risk of a larger Venezuelan disruption has temporarily subsided. However, the OPEC plus supply deal is under political pressure from within and without.
Demand will be a positive factor in the week ahead. In the U.S., crude runs continue to seasonally decline, but likely builds in crude stocks will be offset by expected declines in product stocks.
Refining will be a neutral factor in the week ahead.
Brent fell $0.11/bbl last week to average $61.51/bbl.
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