We think cold temperatures have interfered with normal operations to depress dry gas production marginally by 0.56 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) or approximately 4 Bcf over the report week. Canadian imports rose by 0.13 Bcf/d at 5% week-on-week to partly offset the decline in production. Exports to Mexico dropped slightly by 0.05 Bcf/d. Cold weather pushed up demand sharply by 6.55 Bcf/d or 46 Bcf over the report week.

Our analysis leads us to expect that a 49 Bcf injection will be reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Nov. 7. This is less than the 51 Bcf five-year average build as well as a 52 Bcf consensus whisper expectation.

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