The Biden administration broke its silence on Nov. 30 on European Union deliberations over a $65/bbl-$70/bbl Russian oil price cap, warning far lower prices cited for some Russian Urals crude shipments should be approached with caution.
A U.S. official told Reuters that recently quoted Urals prices in the $52-a-barrel range do not represent broader pricing in a very opaque market.
The official cited outside estimates showing that over the last two months, the Urals discount to benchmark Brent crude has recently been close to $23 a barrel, falling as low as $17 a barrel. With Brent trading at $85.36 a barrel on Nov. 30, a $23 discount implies a Urals price of around $62, much closer to the proposed cap level.
The U.S. Treasury has remained silent over the past week as European Union diplomats have struggled to reach consensus on a price cap level initially proposed in the $65-$70 a barrel range.
Some countries including Poland, Lithuania and Estonia have pushed for a far lower $30-a-barrel price limit, arguing this is closer to Russia's cost of production and that the west needs to squeeze Moscow's revenues harder.
But the U.S. official's comments, which signal growing concern over the EU deliberations, come just five days before a European Union embargo on Russian crude imports is set to be phased in.
Lower quoted market prices could erode support for a cap in the $60-$70 range. The U.S. official cited concerns over using prices that represent a subset of Russian oil sales.
At issue are recent prices quoted by Argus Media and S&P Platt's in the past week of around $52 at key Black Sea and Baltic export terminals and cited by Bloomberg.
The U.S. official said such prices do not include transportation and other costs associated with Russian crudes. A price cap of $65 a barrel on Russian crude would represent a meaningful price reduction from recent prices, citing an estimated average of $78/bbl since March 2022.
The Treasury has been promoting the price cap idea to European allies since the spring of 2022, as they considered and agreed on their phased ban on Russian oil imports to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
The cap was conceived as a way to limit Moscow's oil revenues while keeping Russian crude on the global market to avoid a massive spike in oil prices.
The price cap will be enforced by denying insurance, shipping and other maritime services provided by G7 democracies and Australia to shipments priced above the cap.
Russia said last week it would not supply oil and gas to countries supporting the cap, but will make a final decision once it analyses final figures.
Recommended Reading
Western Midstream Details Carbon-Management Initiative with Occidental
2023-02-02 - Analysts note that midstream operators of all sizes may have opportunities in CCUS.
Diamondback Closes $1.55 Billion Lario Acquisition, Boosting Midland Basin Inventory
2023-02-01 - With the Lario Permian deal closed, Diamondback wraps up a pair of fourth-quarter 2022 deals in which it purchased private Midland Basin operators for a total of about $3.3 billion.
Subsea Services Market Expected to Top $7 Billion in 2023
2023-01-31 - Rystad Energy sees increased brownfield activity driving a 20% increase in projected spend in the subsea services market in 2023.
US Drillers Leave Oil, Gas Rigs Unchanged: Baker Hughes
2023-01-27 - The U.S. oil and gas rig count remains steady at 771 in the week ending Jan. 27, according to Baker Hughes.
TotalEnergies EP Canada Acquiring 6.65% Additional Interest in Fort Hills Project
2023-01-27 - The acquisition is ahead of TotalEnergies’ planned spin-off of the Canadian company.