U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2021 after falling last year as the pandemic stifled demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Nov. 9.
The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 93.34 Bcf/d in 2021 and 96.69 Bcf/d in 2022 from 91.49 Bcf/d in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 92.87 Bcf/d in 2019.
The agency also projected gas consumption would slide to 83.03 Bcf/d in 2021 before rising to 83.06 Bcf/d in 2022 from 83.25 Bcf/d in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.29 Bcf/d in 2019.
If the outlook is correct, 2021 would mark the first time consumption falls for two years in a row since 2006.
The EIA’s projections for 2021 in November exceeded its October forecast of 92.55 Bcf/d for supply, but were lower than its prior demand forecast of 83.23 Bcf/d.
The agency forecast U.S. LNG exports would reach 9.81 Bcf/d in 2021 and 11.49 Bcf/d in 2022, up from a record 6.53 Bcf/d in 2020. That is higher than its October forecast of 9.71 Bcf/d in 2021 and 11.15 Bcf/d in 2022.
The EIA projected U.S. coal production will rise to 582 million short tons in 2021 and 611 million short tons in 2022 from 535 million short tons in 2020, its lowest since 1965, as power plants burn more coal due to a forecast increase in gas prices.
The EIA projected carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will rise to 4.886 billion tonnes in 2021 and 4.920 billion tonnes in 2022 as power generators burn more coal. That is up from 4.575 billion tonnes in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983.
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