As JP Morgan Chase & Co. braces for losses on energy loans that could total $2.8 billion this year, major U.S. banks must nervously ponder an estimated $123 billion that they have lent the industry.
Bloomberg Gadfly columnists Lisa Abramowicz and Rani Molla came up with that figure based on analyst reports of 14 major institutions, including JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The number may not fully reflect the risk, the writers acknowledged, or it may substantially overstate it.
JP Morgan announced on Feb. 23 that it had added $500 million to its reserves—making a total of $1.315 billion—to protect against oil and gas sector loan losses in first-quarter 2016. If West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices remain in the range of $25 per barrel (bbl) for another 18 months then the bank said it would need to set aside an additional $1.5 billion.
This followed Goldman Sachs’ announcement on Monday that 40% of its energy loans were to oil and gas companies with junk credit ratings.
But U.S. banks appear to be in a considerably stronger position that counterparts in Europe, including Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS and HSBC, according to an online report by CNBC. European banks are reported to be on the hook for over $100 billion in loans to the energy sector.
“This is what the U.S. financial system does so much better than its European counterparts: It tries to quantify problems with relative speed and then address them rather than let them simmer and hope they go away,” Abramowicz and Molla wrote.
Could defaults triggered by low oil prices spark a new banking industry crisis? Unlikely, wrote Gene Epstein in Barron’s this week in an optimistic piece about the economy in general. Energy sector loans do not account for more than 4% of all U.S. bank lending, he wrote, quoting economist Carsten Valgreen, and historically, spikes in oil prices precede recessions, not declines.
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com or on Twitter at @JHMarkman.
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