With the failure of the Yukos-Sibneft merger, Sibneft could be back in play as a merger partner, say JJ Traynor, an analyst with Deutsche Bank. The company is the star of the Russian oil business, and international oil companies around the world are sizing up a match. "We believe Sibneft, as the most dynamic and profitable oil company in Russia, deserves to trade at a premium of up to 30% to its Russian peers," Traynor says. He values the company at between $16- and $22 billion, and says a suitor should be prepared to pay as much as $18.5 billion. Total, ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco are the most likely candidates, he adds. "All could afford a cash-plus-shares play, or a cash deal. All have intriguing strategic gaps that could be plugged by Sibneft." Any deal, he notes, will be long and complex. "Sibneft could be a strong platform for a new IOC entrant into Russia, with the right political and financial support."
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