Six of the oil industry’s biggest companies are not finding enough oil and gas to fully replace volumes produced, causing proven reserves to dwindle and threatening revenue needed to bankroll energy transition plans, analysts say.

The drop, according to Norway-headquartered Rystad Energy, could result in reserves running out within 15 years if large commercial discoveries are not made quickly.

The analysis this week comes despite proved reserve additions from Total SE and Eni SpA along with some massive oil finds in recent years, including more than 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (Bboe) of recoverable resources discovered offshore Guyana by an Exxon Mobil Corp.-led consortium. It also comes as the world’s near-term demand for oil and gas picks as COVID-19 vaccination rates and global economic activity rises.

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