China is the leading customer for crude delivered through Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline, surprising some analysts who believed the U.S. would be the top buyer, according to a Reuters report on May 16.

Up until the U.S.’ ongoing trade dispute with China and, to a lesser extent, Canada, the primary customer for TMP crude had been the U.S. However, after President Donald Trump took office, China has boosted its share of the shipments, according to tracking data from Kpler, a trade intelligence firm.

Since TMP’s expanded operations began in 2024, China took about 207,000 bbl/d of crude, according to the Reuters report. During the same time, Canada shipped an average 173,000 bbl/d of crude to the U.S. through the TMP’s export dock.

The Canadian government underwent the difficult and controversial capacity expansion on the Trans Mountain Pipeline largely to open trade paths that did not go primarily through the U.S.

Canada ships about 90% of its crude—about 4 MMbbl/d—through pipelines that lead to the U.S., especially refineries in the Midwest. While the TMP can ship only a relatively small amount of Canada’s oil, exports set a record in 2024. Last year, exports of crude oil to countries other than the U.S. rose 59.8% to 66 MMbbl, according to the Canadian government.

The TMP is Canada’s only east-to-west crude line. Originally installed in 1953, the government agreed to roughly triple its capacity expansion from 300,000 bbl/d to 890,000 bbl/d in the late 2010s.

Government support for the project was so strong that in 2018, Canada created a government-owned corporation to buy the line for $4.4 billion and complete the project.

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