OPEC will likely take steps to boost oil prices, which started the year in free-fall, the chief executive of top shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources Scott Sheffield said on Jan. 5.
"Saudi is not going to let Brent stay around $75 a barrel," he told investors at a Goldman Sachs conference in Miami, Florida. "It wouldn't surprise me if they had another cut."
His comments came as oil posted its biggest two-day loss in three decades to start the year this week. Brent futures were trading around $78 a barrel on the morning of Jan. 5.
Sheffield said future oil prices, often referred to as "the strip," will likely stay in backwardation going forward, with current prices higher than future contracts.
"There is no liquidity in the market," he said referring to later-dated oil contracts. "Banks aren't hedging, there's nobody using that product and hedging anymore. No airlines are hedging, so there is nothing to bring up the strip."
He anticipated oil prices to find a base of around $90 a barrel, with an upside of around $150 a barrel.
Going forward, Sheffield predicted that oil output in the largest U.S. shale basin will eventually hit 7 MMbbl and plateau. He warned that the gas-to-oil ratio there will likely shift to under 50% oil over the next ten years, prompting the need for a new gas pipeline roughly every 18 months.
Only Chevron, Pioneer Natural Resources and ConocoPhillips have capacity to produce more than 1 MMboe/d in the Permian by 2030, Sheffield predicted.
At the same time, he said the rig count will likely stay relatively flat and potentially decrease amid surging prices for services and takeaway constraints. He pointed to day rates of roughly $38,000 for rigs operated by drilling contractor Patterson-UTI.
"Something has got to break," he said.
Recommended Reading
ProPetro’s Low-Carbon Future Still Begins and Ends in the Permian
2023-01-17 - Following some A&D in 2022, the Permian-focused oilfield service company is shifting its mindset from aggressive growth to sustainability.
Cardinal Midstream Closes Purchase of Delaware Basin Natural Gas Assets
2023-02-07 - Purchase of Medallion Midstream’s Delaware Basin natural gas gathering and processing business adds to Cardinal’s portfolio.
State of Shale 2023, Barnett: A Star is Reborn
2022-12-27 - Led by operator BKV Corp., the Barnett is getting a makeover as older wells are recompleted using modern refracturing techniques.
Elk Range Closes Acquisition of Tower Rock’s Permian Royalty Interests
2023-02-02 - Elk Range Royalties acquired approximately 2,300 net royalty acres in the Permian Basin from Tower Rock Oil and Gas.
Oilfield Service Company Valynt Treats Retired Field in Real World Lab
2023-02-21 - Valynt’s product, intended to extract lighter crudes from sludge, could hold key to improving shale production.