E&Ps have discussed “peak oil” in the Permian Basin over the first quarter of 2025.

Peak Permian natural gas, however, may be a more immediate problem— chiefly because there seems to be no peak in sight. Gas production in the basin keeps growing, and with it the need to find a way to ship it out, according to a panel of midstream executives.

When it comes to takeaway capacity, “there’s always the need for more,” said Jamie Welch, CEO of Kinetik Midstream. Welch was one of three panelists who spoke on midstream issues in the Permian at Hart Energy’s SUPER DUG 2025 Conference & Expo on May 15.

For the time being, the Permian is expected to continue increasing its natural gas production. Gas-to-oil ratios in the region have been increasing for years and are likely to continue rising as E&Ps move into new Permian regions, said Brad Iles, CEO of Brazos Midstream. So much gas is produced that prices sometimes turn negative, most recently on May 19.

“What we’re seeing is that these secondary zones that weren’t focused on for years are now becoming the first zone,” Iles said. “They’re gassier zones with the same amount of oil production.”

At the other end of the line, natural gas demand is expected to keep pulling for more production. According to a VettaFi analysis on May 20, U.S. natural gas demand is projected to grow about 20% by 2030, driven by LNG export demand, rising power demand and the onshoring movement of several industrial companies.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), one of the largest midstream companies in the U.S., has been rapidly building out its natural gas delivery systems to meet the growing need, said Allen Fore, vice president of public affairs for Kinder Morgan.

“We have about $8.8 billion in our backlog for projects,” Fore said. “That’s a lot of projects; most of that’s for natural gas.”

Several of KMI’s major gas transport projects, such as the Mississippi Crossing or the Trident Pipeline, have already made headlines. However, Fore said it was also easy to miss how, over the last year, Kinder Morgan has spent millions on smaller projects, such as compressor stations, lateral pipeline expansions and utility supply connections.

“We’ve seen more of those than we ever had before, and those keep coming over and over again,” Fore said.

Welch said the future of the Permian gas pipeline network will be determined by demand, which can come from a lot of different locations. Kinetik CEO Welch noted that Katy, Texas, with its connections to a growing network of LNG plants along the Gulf Coast, is a likely destination.

Other markets may step up. Welch mentioned Tallgrass Energy’s May 15 announcement that it plans to build a gas pipeline from the Permian to the Rockies Express Pipeline, evacuating natural gas to the north instead of the south.  

“The question is, which customers are going to stand up and basically underwrite the cost?” he said. “And then the question is, where do you go?”

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