Oil output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is due to rise 78,000 bbl/d to a record 5.445 million bbl/d in August, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on July 18.

Total output in the major U.S. shale oil basins will rise 136,000 bbl/d to 9.068 million bbl/d in August, the highest since March 2020, the EIA projected.

In the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, the EIA projected oil output will rise 19,000 bbl/d to 1.192 million bbl/d in August, the most since December 2020.

In the Eagle Ford in South Texas, output will rise 25,000 bbl/d to 1.205 million bbl/d in August, the highest since April 2020.

Total natural gas output in the big shale basins will increase 700 MMcf/d to a record 93 Bcf/d in August, the EIA forecast.

In the biggest shale gas basin, the EIA said, output in Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia will rise to 35.3 Bcf/d in August, the highest since hitting a record 36 Bcf/d in December 2021.

Gas output in the Permian Basin and the Haynesville Shale in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will also rise to record highs of 20.5 Bcf/d and 15.5 Bcf/d in August, respectively.

But productivity in the biggest oil and gas basins has declined every month since setting records of new oil well production per rig of 1,545 bbl/d in December 2020 in the Permian Basin, and new gas well production per rig of 33.3 MMcf/d in March 2021 in Appalachia.

In August, the EIA expects new oil well production per rig will drop to 1,107 bbl/d in the Permian Basin, the lowest since August 2020, and new gas well production per rig will drop to 27.6 MMcf/d in Appalachia, the lowest since August 2020.

The EIA said producers drilled 938 wells, the most since March 2020, and completed 964, the most since October 2021, in the biggest shale basins in June.

That left total DUCs down 26 to 4,245, the lowest since at least December 2013, according to EIA data going back that far. The number of DUCs available has fallen for 24 consecutive months.