OPEC foresees continued economic growth this year despite numerous headwinds and global oil demand rising in the second half of 2022 compared to the first half of the year.

“Consumption remains robust, especially in the advanced economies, with an expected continued recovery particularly evident in the contact-intensive services sector, which includes travel and transportation activity, leisure and hospitality,” OPEC announced in its June 2022 Monthly Oil Market Report.

“However, significant downside risks prevail, stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions, the continued pandemic, rising inflation, aggravated supply chain issues, high sovereign debt levels in many regions and expected monetary tightening by central banks in the U.S., the U.K., Japan and the eurozone,” the organization warned. 

Source: OPEC MOMR, June 2022. Some totals may not add up due to rounding.
Note: (1) OPEC supply figure for 2022 is simply the monthly average for May 2022. 

Snapshot: OPEC World Oil Demand and Supply (Million bbl/d)

  2020  2021 2022 E
OECD 41.2 44.8 46.53
Non-OECD 49.1 52.2 53.75
Total World Demand 91.2 96.9 100.3
OECD 29.1 29.5 31
Non-OECD 31.7 31.9 32.4
Total Non-OPEC Supply 63 63.6 65.8
OPEC Supply (1) 25.7 26.4 28.5

World oil demand is expected to average 101.8 million bbl/d in the second half of 2022, up from 98.7 million bbl/d in the first half of 2022, according to OPEC. Demand is expected to rise by 3.4 million bbl/d in 2022, while “improving mobility in major economies, as well as seasonal containment of the pandemic is projected to support gasoline and distillate demand.”

U.S. liquids supply growth in 2022 is expected to remain relatively unchanged at 1.3 million bbl/d, OPEC said, adding that primary supply growth was expected in the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Guyana and China with declines expected mainly in Russia, Indonesia and Thailand.