Oil Prices Fall as Investors Take Stock of Biden Exit, Rate Cuts in Focus

Oil prices fell on July 22 after Joe Biden announced he would not seek a second term as U.S. president, while investors considered the possibility of U.S. interest rate cuts, potentially as soon as September.

Brent crude futures fell 68 cents, or 0.82%, to $81.95/bbl by 1327 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 69 cents at $79.44.

Brent has remained relatively steady in the past month, hovering between $82/bbl and $88/bbl.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is due to review policy next on July 30-31, when investors expect it to maintain rates, though there have been signs of a possible cut in September.

"The risk of delaying rate cuts is tied to a contracting economy, which could potentially lead to a recession. This scenario signals bearish implications for oil demand and prices," Razan Hilal, market analyst at Forex.com, said in a note.

Higher interest rates boost borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, weighing on oil demand.

"If we get an indication of a soon rate cut, the Fed could be positive for risk sensitive assets like oil," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

Meanwhile, news that President Biden decided on Sunday to abandon his re-election bid was not a major factor for oil markets, analysts said. He has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the candidate who should face Republican Donald Trump in the November election.

"We think the ability of the U.S. president to influence U.S. oil production is probably overrated," said Suvro Sarkar, energy team lead at DBS Bank, noting U.S. output reached record highs last year despite the Biden administration's moves to address climate change.

"If anything, a Trump presidency could influence higher demand for oil in the U.S., given his anti-EV (electric vehicle) stance," Sarkar added.

That could offset some of the support markets have gained from recent OPEC+ production cuts, said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

The flipside to unrestricted oil production in the U.S. could well be lower oil prices, which may have the unintended impact of forcing marginal producers to mothball production, Sycamore added.

Elsewhere, China's slower than expected economic growth of 4.7% in the second quarter sparked concerns last week over the country's demand for oil and continues to weigh on prices.

On July 22, China also surprised markets by lowering a key short-term policy rate and benchmark lending rates to boost the economy, though support was limited, analysts said.

"The Chinese interest rate cut has been too small to lift overall sentiment for crude oil," said UBS' Staunovo.

On July 21, China released a policy document after a leaders' meeting that largely outlined known ambitions, from developing advanced industries to improving the business environment. Analysts did not spot any imminent sign of structural shifts in the world's second biggest economy.