Oil prices will stall this year as weak economic growth is expected to curb demand and offset the impact of OPEC+ production cuts on supply, a Reuters poll showed on July 31.
A survey of 37 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $81.95 a barrel in 2023, down from June's $83.03 consensus and current levels of around $85. Brent was forecast to average $83.67 next year.
The global benchmark has averaged around $80 so far this year.
U.S. crude was seen averaging $77.20 a barrel in 2023, down from the previous month's $78.38 forecast, and $78.25 in 2024.
"We expect the impact of high interest rate levels to start curbing economic growth more strongly over H2 2023," data and analytics firm Kpler said, maintaining "a comparatively bearish view on the market".
Central banks, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB, raised interest rates to historic highs this month.
Sluggish growth in top crude importer China has also weighed on oil prices so far in 2023.
However, Chinese stimulus measures and a pick-up in air travel could buoy prices later this year, analysts said.
Global oil demand was expected to increase by about 1-2.1 million barrels per day in 2023, led by China.
"China's economic outlook may continue to disappoint but upside in oil demand is still possible with jet demand recovery from international flights later this year," said Ajay Parmar, associate director of global oil markets research at HSBC.
Some of the analysts expected supplies to tighten and support oil prices in the latter part of this year after Saudi Arabia and Russia deepened output cuts in July.
"We're forecasting that the oil market will be in deficit in Q3 and Q4 2023 because of the cuts by OPEC+, which will not be offset by non-OPEC producers," said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.
Recommended Reading
Bloom Energy, Chart Industries Form CCUS Partnership for Low-Emissions NatGas
2025-02-14 - Bloom Energy and Chart Industries aim to use natural gas and fuel cells to generate power through their carbon capture partnership.
Howard Energy Partners Closes on Deal to Buy Midship Interests
2025-02-13 - The Midship Pipeline takes natural gas from the SCOOP/STACK plays to the Gulf Coast to feed demand in the Southeast.
NOG Spends $67MM on Midland Bolt-On, Ground Game M&A
2025-02-13 - Non-operated specialist Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) is growing in the Midland Basin with a $40 million bolt-on acquisition.
EDF, TAQA Sign MOU to Advance Geothermal Systems in Saudi Arabia
2025-02-13 - EDF Saudi Arabia and TAQA Geothermal Energy will collaborate on geothermal cooling systems including power generation, HVAC applications and compressed air energy storage.
TotalEnergies Closes $1.4B Acquisition of Malaysia’s SapuraOMV
2024-12-10 - TotalEnergies acquired SapuraOMV’s main assets in blocks SK408 and SK310, both located offshore Sarawak in Malaysia.
Comments
Add new comment
This conversation is moderated according to Hart Energy community rules. Please read the rules before joining the discussion. If you’re experiencing any technical problems, please contact our customer care team.