Macquarie Sees Potential for Large Crude Draw Next Week

Macquarie analysts see the potential for a large drawdown in U.S. crude stocks—a projected 8.2 MMbbl—next week, as crude and refined products exports rebound.

Walt Chancellor, an energy strategist at Macquarie, said that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this week 1.6 MMbbl draws in commercial crude, 2 MMbbl from Cushing and 500,000 bbl of jet fuel.

EIA reported small builds in gasoline and distillate.

“All told, these stats were slightly bullish relative to our expectations, somewhat offset by strong implied supply in the face of” Gulf of Mexico shut-ins related to Hurricane Francine.

Implied domestic supply was “extremely strong,” nominally, despite storm impacts.

“In particular, we look for a significant rebound in exports across crude and products this week,” Chancellor said.

Among products, Macquarie’s preliminary expectations point to draws in gasoline (1.5 MMbbl) and distillate (3.7 MMbbl).