One of the buzz topics at CERAWeek by IHS Markit in March was how U.S. shale oil has overtaken global supply dynamics and reset the traditional balance of crude flows worldwide. U.S. crude production grew by a whopping 1.8 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) in 2018 year-over-year, just shy of 12 MMbbl/d, a record. That fact propelled the U.S. into the pole position of global crude producers, topping Russia and Saudi Arabia.

However, off the main stage and in a room at the end of the hallway early one morning, one of the founders of the shale revolution harkened a warning: such a volume might not be sustainable for many more years. Shale production is destined to peak.

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