Forecasters are offering up their 2025 outlooks with less confidence than usual, thanks to global conflict, Donald Trump’s return to the White House and China’s unpredictable economy.

Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports are adding to growing uncertainties in global trade, said analysts at Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR). Other factors include continued fighting in Ukraine and Gaza, Chinese dominance in clean technology (although with a weakened economic outlook) and expected policy changes in the Trump administration.

China’s oil needs had Enverus downgrading “our 2025 Brent price forecast by $5/bbl due to our conservative expectations on Chinese oil demand,” Al Salazar, a director at EIR, said.

Nevertheless, global oil demand is at record highs with crude and product stocks low, suggesting oil prices don’t reflect market realities.

“Fundamentals alone suggest oil prices should be in the mid- to high $80s,” Salazar said.

S&P Global Commodity Insights sees “more uncertainty in energy markets heading into a new year than any year since the pandemic,” according to a Dec. 11 report.

Still, analysts expect energy demand to grow more than clean energy supply, pushing emissions higher in the year ahead.

“Total primary energy demand has been growing above trend since the pandemic, and growth will remain robust in 2025,” S&P Global said.

As AI takes the world by storm, power demand from data centers is expected to grow 10% to 15% per year through 2030, S&P added.

“In the developed economies of North America, Europe and Asia, where power demand has been flat or has even fallen in recent years, data centers represent a shift to 2% to 3% growth,” S&P Global said.

LNG in 2025

And big changes are likely in the global LNG market.

“The next major wave of supply starts in 2025 and will be kicked off from new liquefaction capacity coming online in North America,” S&P Global said. Enverus said new gas supply “will be needed soon, as activity levels remain alarmingly low.”

To offset the emissions, clean energy supply is growing faster than ever, but not fast enough to curtail fossil fuel demand.

“Deployment of clean energy technology continues to accelerate in China” but faces “considerable headwinds in the West,” S&P Global said, noting Trump’s pledges to roll back subsidy provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act and already reduced subsidies in Europe.

Gasoline demand

Next year could see a peak gasoline demand, though. As gasoline engines get more efficient and more electric vehicles hit the roads, demand may drop after this year, S&P said. The addition of refining capacity may pressure margins and force older refineries to close.

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