The largest crude stream today is medium sour crude (API range between 26 and 35 with sulfur content no less than 0.5%), which accounts for about 34.5% of global crude supply. More than 80% of the production is from the Middle East and Russia and CIS regions. Medium sweet crude (API range between 26 and 35 with sulfur content less than 0.5%) accounts for about 10.3%. About 80% of the medium sweet crude production is from Asia-Pacific, Africa and Latin America regions.

Light sweet crude (API greater than 35 with sulfur content less than 0.5%) accounts for about 19.6% of the global supply, and two-thirds is produced in North America and Africa. Light sour crude (API greater than 35 with sulfur content no less than 0.5%) accounts for about 14.6%, and about 90% is produced from the Middle East and Russia and CIS.

Heavy sour crude (API less than 26 with sulfur content no less than 0.5%) accounts for about 12% of the global supply, and more than 90% is produced in the Middle East, North America and Latin America. Heavy sweet crude (API less than 26 with sulfur content less than 0.5%) is a relatively small stream and accounts for 1.6% of the global supply. About two-thirds of the supply is produced in the Asia-Pacific region.

As a separate supply stream, field condensate (sweet and sour combined) accounts for 7.5% of the global crude supply, and about 60% of production is from the Middle East and Russia and CIS regions.

Looking forward, global crude streams will turn lighter and sweeter, driven by the growth of light sweet crude. The light sweet stream is expected to grow market share to 24% by 2025 from 19.6% in 2017 or a 7.9-million-barrel-per-day (MMbbl/d) increase. The growth will be driven by U.S. shale production, which will boost North America’s light sweet crude production by 6.6 MMbbl/d in 2025 compared with 2017. Light sour crude will somehow resume its share to 14.3% by 2025 after dropping to 13.8% in 2021. The growth will mostly come from the Middle East and Russian and CIS.

The other streams are mostly giving in their market shares due to the high growth of sweet light crude. The largest stream, medium sour crude, is expected to drop more than 2% to 32.3% by 2025 compared with 2017, even though the stream will gain about 3.8 MMbbl/d in production. The production growth is mostly from the Middle East and Russia and CIS, while the rest of the world will experience declines. Medium sweet crude will drop its market share by about 1.6% to 8.7% by 2025 compared with 2017. Unlike the medium sour stream, the medium sweet crude is balanced between the growth in Latin America and Europe, and the declines in North America and Asia-Pacific.

Heavy sour crude will experience a slight drop (0.3%) of market share to 11.7% by 2025, even though production will grow by about 1.8 MMbbl/d. The growth will mostly come from the Middle East as OPEC will end production cuts when the global market rebalances. Heavy sweet crude will continue to be a small stream with negligible growth globally below 100,000 bbl/d.

The share of field condensate supply will roughly remain unchanged with 7.5%. However, it will turn sourer as sour condensate grows faster than sweet condensate. Sour condensate production is expected to grow by 1.2 MMbbl/d by 2025 compared with 2017, contributed mostly from the Middle East and North America.