U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on May 10.

EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 96.71 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 101.71 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.55 bcfd in 2021.

The agency also projected gas consumption would rise from 82.97 in 2021 to 85.73 bcfd in 2022 before sliding to 85.28 bcfd in 2023. That compares with a record 85.29 bcfd in 2019.

EIA's May supply projection for 2022 was smaller than its April forecast of 97.41 bcfd, but its demand projection was bigger than its April forecast of 84.11 bcfd for 2022.

The agency forecast U.S. LNG exports would reach 11.99 bcfd in 2022 and 12.63 bcfd in 2023, up from a record 9.76 bcfd in 2021. That was lower than its April forecast of 12.19 bcfd in 2022.

EIA projected U.S. coal production would rise to 598 million short tons in 2022 and 605 million short tons in 2023 from 578 million short tons in 2021 as power plants burn more coal due to an expected rise in gas prices.

In 2020, coal output fell to 535 million short tons, its lowest since 1965.

EIA projected power generators burning more coal would boost carbon emissions from fossil fuels to 4.959 billion tonnes in 2022 from 4.872 billion tonnes in 2021 before emissions slide to 4.935 billion tonnes in 2023.

That compares with 4.577 billion tonnes in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983 because the coronavirus pandemic depressed demand for energy.