U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 290,000 bbl/d in 2021 to 11.02 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on May 11, a steeper decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 270,000 bbl/d.

U.S. oil producers have been gradually increasing drilling activity as oil prices have rebounded but output growth has been muted as investors pressure companies to rein in spending and focus on returns.

In 2022, oil production is expected to rise by 820,000 bbl/d to 11.84 million bbl/d, unchanged from the EIA’s estimate last month.

“Because the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains above $55 per barrel in our forecast, we expect producers will drill and complete enough wells in the coming months to offset declines at existing wells,” the agency said in a monthly forecast.

EIA STEO May 2021 Graph - WTI Crude Oil Price and Nymex Confidence Intervals

The EIA said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.39 million bbl/d to 19.51 million bbl/d in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.32 million bbl/d.

The agency expects that gasoline consumption in the United States will average almost 9 million bbl/d this summer, between April and September, which is 1.2 million bbl/d more than last summer but almost 600,000 bbl/d less than summer of 2019.

For 2022, U.S. consumption is forecast to rise 1.02 million bbl/d to 20.53 million bbl/d, higher than its previous estimate for an increase of 980,000 bbl/d.